Some years just seem more consequential than others.

In hindsight 2024 may be such a year. The twenties has often been a big decade in history, partly because it follows the teens, often the decade of revolutions - French, Communist, Ottoman, for example.

Let's first consider all that happened in 1924, a year that also was to have profound implications for humans and nature in the next 100 years until today:-

January 27: The mausoleum of Lenin is placed in Red Square, and Stalin soon rises. The cold war will come and it will lead to hot wars in Asia and Africa.

January 25: The French government signs a treaty of mutual aid with Czechoslovakia. Later, they pull out. In 2024, is the US and EU the new France when it comes to Ukraine?

January 29: Carl Taylor patents the ice cream cone. There is a food revolution in the 20th century as our food gets better, more branded, and from fewer sources.

February 2: The Turkish National Assembly abolishes the last caliphate after four centuries. To this day ISIS, Boko Haram, Hamas, and Al Qaeda all have this as No1 priority.

February 17: The Lincoln Memorial is created and America is clear about what it stands for.

March 5: The Computing-Tabulating-Recording Corp becomes IBM. The information age begins.

April 1: Adolf Hitler is sentenced to 5 years in jail for leading an insurrection. Will he be held accountable?

April 6: Four Seattle planes achieve the first around-the-world flight. The jet age begins.

April 14: Louis Sullivan, American architect and father of skyscrapers dies. Modern architecture is born.

April 17: Metro Pictures, Goldwyn Pictures & Louis B Mayer Co. merged to form Metro MGM. Entertainment has become an industry.

May 10: J. Edgar Hoover is appointed head of the FBI. Another step to a cold war.

May 31: China formally recognises the USSR. There is now a "communist block"

June 15: Ford Motor Company manufactures its 10 millionth automobile. The auto age is here.

August 11: The first newsreel pictures of U.S. presidential candidates are taken.  Media and politics find themselves forever entwined.

August 29: Germany’s Reichstag approved the Dawes Plan, which sought to solve the problems of WWI reparations. The plan provided for France to end its occupation of Germany’s Ruhr region and created a payment plan for Germany. Many French citizens believe their government is being too lenient on Germany.  This leads to a resurgent Germany and re-armament.

September 3: Civil War breaks out in China. This leads to Chinese communism and Taiwan.

October 13: Mecca falls without struggle to Saudi forces, led by Abdulaziz Ibn Saud. He then declares himself the protector of the holy places in Mecca. Saudi Arabia has arrived. Soon they would find oil: religion, economics and politics become connected like never before.

October 19: An eight-hour work day is demanded by the General Christian Workers Union in Belgium. A new model of work is coming.

November 4: Nellie Tayloe Ross is elected as the first U.S. female governor. Soon women will not just have political voices but will for the first time in history control reproduction and bodily autonomy. Work is now a legitimate choice for women.

December 15: Winston Churchill writes a letter to Prime Minister Baldwin, considering the chance of war with Japan. Churchill claims “I do not believe there is the slightest chance of it in our lifetime.” 

December 17: The first diesel-electric locomotive enters service in the Bronx, New York City.  Mass transport is the way of the future - as is suburban life.

December 20: Adolf Hitler is freed from jail early, having only served 9 months of a 5-year sentence for the Beer Hall Putsch (insurrection). His earlier failed coup brought attention to his name, and he spent his time in prison writing Mein Kampf (My Struggle). The rest is history.

December 30: Astronomer Edwin Hubble formally announces the existence of other galactic systems at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society. We are not alone.

 And so what might we see in 2024. Here are some thoughts about the transformational influences at play in this new year and the decades to come.

So what about 2024?

I'll be reading news stories about the following trends and thinking whether we are truely in a moment of history without knowing it.

Economic:

1. Automation and artificial intelligence will affect job markets and create new occupational opportunities as well as the death of others. Jobs that are likely to see change are routine, rules-based, transactional or precedent-based. These will be automated/digitised like accounting, law, driving, basic manufacturing, scheduling, banking, insurance, planning, basic war-fighting, logistics, population control, farming, buying, basic service functions, records management and others. The jobs of the future will be about complex service provision, requiring emotional intelligence, complex design, advanced manufacturing, creativity, art, film, tourism, environmental restoration, energy transformation, philosophy, psychology, medicine, caregiving, teaching, systems management, environmental management, learning, strategic thinking, politics etc. Robotics, genomics, AI, blockchain innovation, energy transition, global warming mitigation, and Internet 3.0 will be the new cars/electricity/telephony drivers for the next 100 years. In 2024 there was an odd little piece of cryptography coding called Bitcoin - let's see how that goes!Overall job growth will exceed job decline, but the key will be speed of learning and adaptation. I'm confident - look how fast we have all adopted iPhones.

2. Continued globalization and trade policies will impact international economic relations. America could continue isolating itself but is unlikely to as it re-tools and becomes the main economic, military and innovation engine for the world once more. The near-east, southeast Asia, maybe Japan, Australia and some parts of Africa will boom for different reasons. Post-oil, the Middle East will need to redefine what it is all about its role in the world and its relationship with its people. China will stay about where it is but the trend will be for it to look more and more like Japan in the 80's under crushing debt and a lack of natural wealth, population (aging and decline), and creativity. Europe will need to adjust to no-more-cheap-energy and move towards advanced manufacturing, services, and tourism. Manufacturing is likely to move east towards Poland, central Europe and Ukraine especially. I suspect the UK must rejoin Europe in the next 50 years but will remain an important large/middle power with surprising levels of creativity as will France and Germany. South America again doesn't boom except Mexico which will become part of the new North American juggernaut with each providing what it does best including labour advantages, logistics strengths, innovation and advanced manufacturing.Countries that import energy food and water (like China and a lot of Africa and the Middle East) are most vulnerable.

3. Shifts in consumer behaviour and preferences will lead to changes in industries such as e-commerce, sustainable products, and digital services. These will fill the gaps above as the opportunities present.

4. Demography will play a big part in the next 100 years. Countries with cultures that promote labour mobility will win because of their capacity to renew, cope with aging populations and integration of others. This includes the anglosphere (US, Australia, Britain, Canada, maybe India) and southern Europe, Turkey, south and middle Africa and south-east Asia. China has terrible demographics and Russia is even worse - both will be half their size in 50 years. China will still be a top 3-5 economy but Russia is in big trouble as it lost half its economy in the Ukraine war. The top 3 countries in the world by population will be India, Nigeria, and maybe Indonesia followed by China, Brazil and the US. Pressure on the environment will continue as a result.

Political:

1. Geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts will influence international policies and alliances. I touched on some of these above. The key will be whether Western alliances and commitment to values can be as strong as autocratic ambition and pragmatism.

2. The rise of populism and nationalism might affect domestic politics in various countries. Wars of distraction and xenophobia are a real danger especially if local challenges are blamed on foreigners, immigrants, and people who are culturally and religiously different to the majority. The Ukraine war is an example, the Middle East is a powder keg and China will have to think long and hard about the cost/benefit of a Taiwanese adventure.

3. Continued focus on climate change and environmental policies, will lead to international agreements and partnerships as we recognise that we are all in this together. At the same time, water wars will be possible in the Himalayas and Horn of Africa and the Middle East.

Social:

1. Increasing focus on mental health and well-being will lead to changes in healthcare systems and workplace policies. A new age of medicine is coming and technology will be a big factor.

2. Growing diversity and inclusion initiatives will impact social dynamics and workforce demographics.

3. Enhanced reliance on digital connectivity and remote work will transform social interactions and community structures.

4. The shift to a renewable future will see a brand new world powered for free by wind, solar, nuclear fusion (Thorium not uranium) and nuclear fission, geothermal, gravitational, and tidal power among others. Access to energy will no longer seperate the rich countries from the poor - this will be more about culture, social institutions, political factors such as stability, and access to advanced engineering and material science.

Environmental:

1. Accelerated focus on sustainable practices and renewable energy, will lead to investments in clean technology and carbon-neutral initiatives. New eco-billionaires will emerge and power will shift to those of the new paradigm. Boards will realise this is part of their ECR duties and CEOs will factor it in much more.

2. The impact of climate change on natural disasters, resource availability, and ecological systems, will influence government policies and corporate strategies. Companies will de-risk ecologically exposed assets.

3. Shifts in consumer preferences towards eco-friendly products will influence industry and supply chain decisions.

Employment:

1. Advancements in technology will lead to reskilling and upskilling requirements for the workforce. The job will no longer be the main unit of the organisation as much as the goal and task. As a result, HR will have to worry about their human capital ecosystem as much as their employees. Your most important people may not even work for you.

2. Remote and flexible work arrangements becoming more prevalent, impacting workplace culture and organizational design. Work will be what you do not where you go. Quality will be king, and effectiveness will beat efficiency.

3. Emphasis on diversity, equity, and inclusion will continue to create changes in hiring practices and workplace norms. Technology will be used to factor out bias. Diversity today means women in decision-making jobs. The new diversity will be about the inclusion of everyone - ethnicity, age, abilities, personality, lifestyle, etc.

These trends will likely shape the global landscape in 2024 and beyond, impacting economies, societies, and environments around the world for the next 100 years.

But in 2024 what will be the historical moments that people in 100 years may consider key moments?  Here are some of mine:-

1. Who became president in the US in 2024 and what choices were made in the subsequent 3 years? Did America isolate itself? Did it become great again? Did it lead its friends and allies or walk away? Did we just see another American century or did they blow it!

2. Did Europe's last expansionist empire (Russia) lose a war and emerge stronger the same way as all the others who lost wars such as the UK, France, Spain, Hungary, Portugal, etc? What happened to Russia with no more oil and gas? Did its demographics and wars deminish it? Was winning a war in Ukraine actually an historic curse for Russia - now older, poorer, less educated, less relevant, unemployed, vulnerable and in a difficult neighborhood?

3. Did China decide to try to conquer Taiwan by force and why? Did it fix their youth unemployment problem, halt their decline, and finally challenge the US for top-dog in Asia? Did the plan survive first contact with the enemy? Was the Chinese military what it was purported to be? Did America return to become top-dog in advanced chips? Did the belt and road actually work to propel China into another boom period like 1970-2010 causing a boom in the Chinese Near East or did that war turn the world against them?

4. Did Germany survive the Russian energy shock and was it able to help renew itself and Europe? Did it finally forgive itself for WW2 and choose to lead again? Did it manage to transition to electric vehicles in time or did Tesla and BYD eat it's car industry?

5. Did Ukraine survive to become part of the EU and NATO, become an emerging economy and military like Poland, a growth engine for Europe, a military technology exporter and provider of food security for Europe and Africa?

6. Did the Asian century happen with big benefits for Japan, Southeast Asia and Australia?

7. Was the energy transformation fast enough and did fossil fuels die fast enough or do we now have a multi-generational problem?

8. Did technologies such as robotics, genomics, energy transformation, AI, quantum, blockchain, and digital everything have as big an impact in the following 100 years as electricity, medicine, cars and telephony the century before?

9. In 2024 Africa was on the edge of a renaissance: it's best opportunity in 100 years! Is Africa now the new Australia along with Afghanistan, Iran and Mongolia - all potential resource superpowers.