I have seen my share of executives hitting the wall. Often its timing is correlated with a significant change such as new CEO, strategic review, market disruption, financial crisis, reputational crisis, or many of 100 reasons.
However these are just business challenges. They do not help you predict which of your executives are going to blow up. However there are two things to look for that are the canary in the coalmine.
The first is whether that executive gets feedback - at all! The higher up we go the less feedback you get unless you structure things to ensure that you have regular feedback from your direct reports, and their direct reports - and most crucially from your peers. I always suggest mastering the art of the 1:1 with 60% on our shared "what" and 30% on how "we" are going together. The last 10% is for the same question every time ..."what do you want me to be like or do to help us work the best way we can". At first the answer will be "nothing". Eventually they will tell you especially if you ask it every single time. I would meet direct reports monthly, their direct reports 3 monthly and my peers 6 weekly.
I would also strongly suggest you get a coach because they work.
The second fact is that when executives fail it is always about behaviour. Sometimes its about you being culturally misaligned. Can you imagine being a whistle-blower inside Enron - you would not last 5 minutes before that culture ejected you. However most often it because you say and do things that cause the wrong kinds of feelings in other - often fear in particular. An ego is the most expensive asset an executive can have. And because you don't get feedback, when the end comes, it will be short, sharp, and clinical, and probably a surprise.
Both points refer to the crucial need to get feedback in a regular and direct way. Both points also suggest that the best coach is one who can listen on your behalf and give it to you straight-up, letting you decide what to do about it. That's why coaches are best to be external.
If you thought coaching was expensive - failed executives can cost you typically 5-7x their package costs.
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